Thinking About Trends

What are the odds?

Since 2008, a share of RIM (the creators of the BlackBerry phones) dropped from a high of over $140 to what is now less than $20. Every single one of these years, I have heard people say to me that I should buy RIM now because there was no way it was going to get lower. They said it when it was at $100, $80, $50, etc. The question you should ask in these circumstances is:

Is it more likely that:

A) You have guessed exactly when the trend is going to end;

B) Or that the trend should continue like it has in the past?

Similarly, education has been evolving and changing all throughout history. Why would we settle with what we have right now? Why are we satisfied with what we do day by day? I propose that, in all aspects of our lives, we should continue to evolve and learn just as human kind has in the past. Follow the trend of improvement.

As an aside, this article from Quora has some insight on why RIM's stock price collapsed so fast.